Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 10.325131 12.127299 14.106927 16.436879 19.097808 22.035486 25.517531
2024-12-29 7.637589 9.981057 12.795346 16.399374 20.864902 26.186992 32.977760
2025-01-05 5.697571 8.172170 11.380917 15.792817 21.639173 29.051239 39.077969
2025-01-12 4.578431 7.121042 10.642806 15.784557 22.988351 32.593567 46.212004
2025-01-19 3.759589 6.293803 10.018232 15.752151 24.184784 35.925793 53.249085
2025-01-26 3.359736 5.993223 10.064702 16.619722 26.656954 41.138537 63.209990
2025-02-02 2.996425 5.673943 10.013581 17.294012 28.858989 46.088406 73.119670
2025-02-09 2.715656 5.435749 10.040472 18.061097 31.231010 51.421904 83.924004
2025-02-16 2.345699 4.972426 9.621914 18.034669 32.315583 54.843262 92.039568
2025-02-23 1.959161 4.406649 8.941401 17.469131 32.436274 56.725802 97.849402
2025-03-02 1.622140 3.872938 8.237759 16.764266 32.225024 58.014669 102.743987
2025-03-09 1.435696 3.612028 8.003161 16.866775 33.392007 61.606157 111.543692
2025-03-16 1.251090 3.326907 7.693244 16.812181 34.307778 64.898427 120.171701
2025-03-23 1.097099 3.081473 7.429074 16.813743 35.322181 68.427652 129.428473
2025-03-30 0.915302 2.731776 6.893937 16.207266 35.129461 69.809409 135.059420
2025-04-06 0.805699 2.538176 6.667926 16.203565 36.082911 73.288281 144.550958
2025-04-13 0.709097 2.357467 6.443254 16.172068 36.968163 76.684506 154.072937
2025-04-20 0.679100 2.353957 6.631991 17.060439 39.778877 83.832960 170.785824
2025-04-27 0.639546 2.314968 6.729009 17.750573 42.229003 90.434434 186.825111
2025-05-04 0.607594 2.292157 6.862497 18.535427 44.933287 97.672138 204.407704
2025-05-11 0.540526 2.145615 6.659360 18.508421 45.894731 101.561000 215.857179
2025-05-18 0.459170 1.932238 6.247107 17.929854 45.598143 102.928339 222.536320
2025-05-25 0.384234 1.719443 5.800403 17.208670 44.910974 103.446848 227.565890